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Tape is not quite dead yet


schoondoggy
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In 10 years' time? It is quite a development, but 10 years is an eternity in Tech. I wonder what size HDDs we'll be using by then.

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Moore's law, chips should double in transistor counts every 18 months.

 

Sent from my HP Slate 8 Pro using Tapatalk

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Ikon, have you see the new announcement about 4TB SSDs? Screw HDD size in 10 years, what size SSDs will we be using in 10 years?! :)

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9248070/SanDisk_announces_4TB_SSD_hopes_for_8TB_next_year?pageNumber=1

 

Sure, but that likely means HDDs will be over 10TB, maybe even over 20TB per drive. Imagine being able to put the entire Library of Congress on a single HDD. No, wait, how about the contents of every library in the world on a single HDD!

 

Moore's law, chips should double in transistor counts every 18 months.

 

Sent from my HP Slate 8 Pro using Tapatalk

 

Actually, Moore said every 2 years; David House started saying every 18 months, although what House actually said is that performance would double every 18 months. However, that prediction has already failed; performance is not doubling every 18 months, and hasn't been for a number of years now. I recall an Intel conference where they said we would be using 10GHZ CPUs by 2010.

 

In 2004, Intel CPUs were running at just over 3GHZ. Today, they're running at, hmmm, still just over 3GHZ. Sure, they have more cores, and other efficiencies have been introduced, and the trace diameter has shrunk to 22nM, but they don't have anywhere near the performance House predicted. By his prediction, we should have had 6 doublings of performance since 2004. That equates to a CPU running at 192GHZ!!

 

I don't know about you, but I really would like to play Solitaire on a 192GHZ CPU. I especially want to watch the end sequence! :D   And Notepad? Man, that would be awesome!

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Sure, but that likely means HDDs will be over 10TB, maybe even over 20TB per drive. Imagine being able to put the entire Library of Congress on a single HDD. No, wait, how about the contents of every library in the world on a single HDD!

 

Assuming R&D doens't shift focus to solely SSDs. 

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Sure, but that likely means HDDs will be over 10TB, maybe even over 20TB per drive. Imagine being able to put the entire Library of Congress on a single HDD. No, wait, how about the contents of every library in the world on a single HDD!

 

 

Actually, Moore said every 2 years; David House started saying every 18 months, although what House actually said is that performance would double every 18 months. However, that prediction has already failed; performance is not doubling every 18 months, and hasn't been for a number of years now. I recall an Intel conference where they said we would be using 10GHZ CPUs by 2010.

 

In 2004, Intel CPUs were running at just over 3GHZ. Today, they're running at, hmmm, still just over 3GHZ. Sure, they have more cores, and other efficiencies have been introduced, and the trace diameter has shrunk to 22nM, but they don't have anywhere near the performance House predicted. By his prediction, we should have had 6 doublings of performance since 2004. That equates to a CPU running at 192GHZ!!

 

I don't know about you, but I really would like to play Solitaire on a 192GHZ CPU. I especially want to watch the end sequence! :D   And Notepad? Man, that would be awesome!

Two years ago Seagate predicted 60TB drives by 2016. This was based on using HAMR, which is not as easy as hoped.

 

Yes, Moore originally said 24 months, as of 2010 the number is more like 36 months to double transistor counts. Intel has shown their processor road map to ultimately move to 14nm.

Speed is an issue, but the topic here was capacity. For flash, more transistors is more capacity.

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Totally agree. Higher density = faster, cheaper SSDs, which we can all get behind.

Especially 4+TB SSDs for less than $500. That would be awesome. :)

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